:: Instytut Kościuszki - 2007 ::

(Polish version)

Poland after Norway and Denmark is in the third place in terms of energy independence in Europe. Energy dependence is 20 percent, but this is not a permanent trend. Dependence on gas supplies from Russia could become a real threat to our energy security. These are conclusions of the Kosciuszko Institute's  Gas Debate, which was held in Krakow, 1st of December 2009.

ENERGY IN POLAND FAST FACTS:

• Oil resources: 21.2 million tons, extraction: 0.9 million tons, consumption: 18 million tons / year - the necessary import do not pose problems
• Coal resources: 4338 million tons, extraction: 83.6 million tons, consumption: 80 million tons / year
• Natural gas resources: 120 bcm, extraction: 4.1 bcm, consumption: 15 bcm per year - gas import poses problems

The leitmotif of the discussion was currently finalized negotiations with Russia on multi-year agreement on gas supplies to Poland.

The shape of the contract will affect gas prices, economic development and Poland's energy security. According to media reports  negotiated terms of the contract , seem to be very detrimental to Polish economic interest, which raises great concerns in the context of energy security strategy of our country - said Izabela Albrycht, vice president of the Kosciuszko Institute. A similar opinion was expressed by invited guests including former Deputy Economy Minister Piotr Naimski and Janusz Kowalski advisor in the Office of the President.

Our country due to the deposits of coal and coal-fired power is safe at this moment - considered Piotr Naimski, therefore Poland energy should continue to be based on coal, and in the future on nuclear energy. Consumption of natural gas as an energy source should not be changed significantly and should remain at a level of about 13% of our energy balance. However the diversification of supplies should be ensured: different suppliers, different sources and directions. Due to this fact liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal in Swinoujscie, which completion is planned for 2015, is a strategic investment.

Concern is caused by the fact that Moscow's interest is not de-politicization, and transition to the typical relations: the seller - the buyer with the countries of East-Central Europe, including Poland - said PhD Tomasz Mlynarski, expert of the Kosciuszko Institute. It is true that the EU seeks opportunities to de-politicization of gas relations with Russia, however Russians have the largest gas resources in the world, which means that the EU will have to depend on its imports over the years.

 

Although the countries of the EU 15 import most of Russia's natural resources, they do not remain subject to Russian blackmail - said PhD Krzysztof Szczerski vice director of the Institute of Political Science and International Relations of the Jagiellonian University, expert of the Kosciuszko Institute. Russia, paying in bilateral agreements on the basis of divide and rule, has chosen some countries as specific strategic partners and has wanted to gain their favor, while the other are treated as if they do not have the status of the EU members -  he added. The recipe is to use the available instruments of the EU and pursue an active Polish policy in the EU.

The biggest fiasco of the European solidarity is the consensus of the EU countries to build the North European Gas Pipeline. This decision was made despite the negative opinion of the EP regarding hazards for the environment of the Baltic Sea. The investment apart from the obvious political consequences could also pose a real threat to the Baltic Sea ecosystem - considered Marcin Libicki - former MEP, author of the EP report on the North Stream.

During the debate, were also shown trends in the global energy market.

Renewable energy market will grow rapidly but starting from a low level will not maintain dominance. Nuclear power is still controversial but is expected to increase. A dominant position will be maintained by oil, coal and natural gas - pointed prof. Jerzy Stopa from University of Science and Technology.

Martin Tarnawski PhD from Jagiellonian University outlined trends in the energy market presented in the prestigious World Energy Outlook 2009 report. According to him, difficult accessibility to low-carbon technologies, and lower emissivity of gas comparing to oil and coal, will increase the demand for gas. This represents an increase of approximately 1.5% per year, mainly due to the participation of China and India, while the global energy balance of natural gas should remain at its current level of approximately 21 %. Tarnawski also focused on the issue of unconventional gas extraction in the U.S. and Canada. Available technologies ("hyndrauling fracturing "- the method of hydraulic fracture) increase the extraction and reduce its cost, which consequently affect the drop in gas prices in these countries, the decrease in demand for LNG and downward pressure on prices of LNG in the world market.

DEBATE IN MEDIA

http://www.rp.pl/artykul/ 400183.html
http://ww6.tvp.pl/6272, 20091202946148.strona
http://www.tvp.info/ wiadomosci/wideo/01122009-1930

http://www.fronda.pl/news/czytaj/lizbona_wyznacza_nowe_pole_gry_o_ksztalt_polityki_energetycznej

http://www.euractiv.pl/ gospodarka/artykul/polska- uzalenia-si-od-rosyjskiego- gazu--wbrew-wiatowym-trendom- i-zaoeniom-dywersyfikacji- 001481

http://www.euractiv.pl/ gospodarka/artykul/polityka- energetyczna--bezpieczestwo-i- solidarno-001482

PATRONS

Lech Kaczynski President of the Republic of Poland

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